A day in the life of climate change: more heat, bigger swings
A look at two air temperature maps 40 years apart shows how the world is warming, but also how the climate no longer fits nicely into the predictable niches of past averages.
What a difference a day makes, 40 years apart.
Autumn is a lovely time of year. No use wasting time thinking about the changing climate, what with leaves turning gold and crisp air to breathe. Right?
Think again! Climate change is relentless. It goes on whether we know it or not, regardless of the season, whether we are being blistered by extreme weather (like 100 degrees yesterday in Hazen, North Dakota, which was 35 degrees above average) or enjoying a brief respite.
So, as you expand your future travel into the shoulder seasons to avoid summer heat, as research says we will do, be sure to expect the unexpected.
Just look at these two Sept. 28 climate maps of the world, forecast 40 years apart, for which I give my own lay person interpretation below. This tweet is the source of the maps.
The maps are weather forecast snapshots for the same day of the year, Sept. 28 — 1981 on the left and 2021 on the right (enlarged below). Blue is for below average temperatures (or negative anomaly), white for average and red for above average (or positive anomaly). The deviation coloration from average by degrees Celsius is shown on the bottom of the maps.
Averages were determined during the years 1979 through 2000. Temperature forecasts are for 2 meters above the Earth surface. The research is from the University of Maine’s Climate Research Institute.
The first map below shows that even 40 years ago, there were plenty of temperature deviations — both above and below average — from the 22-year period ending in 2000. The weather forecast for Sept. 28, 1981, shows lots of white, plus a mix of negative blue and positive red anomalies.
Now, look at the forecast for 40 years later, Sept. 28, 2021, on this map below. A lot more color is showing, with much less white.
Two things present themselves:
1) The reduction in white over 40 years shows more temperatures are above or below average, not at average.
2) There are more reddish areas showing hotter temperatures.
Overall, the forecast temperatures for the entire world on the maps’ lower info bars were close to the 22-year average on Sept. 28. In 1981 it was 0.1 degree Celsius above average and in 2021 plus 0.3C. In 2021, however, the forecasts were much higher than average for the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic, and much lower for the Antarctic.
This is what is scary about climate change: Not only is the temperature getting warmer, but it also is deviating much farther from past averages — both above and below.
Hotter on one hand, colder on the other . . . that may be the way the world goes forward as climate changes.
This scientific research is a one-day snapshot, but the message is clear: the world is riding a runaway rollercoaster unless something applies the brakes.
